With four races to go, who is the favorite for the Formula E title?

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Mathematically, they are still nine to be able to claim the title of season 9, in Formula E. With 116 points to take at most over the last four rounds of the 2023 campaign, the first nine in the championships still have a chance – more or less great – to glean the crown on the evening of the last E-Prix, in London on July 30th.

If we want to be realistic, however, only four drivers really have a chance of being crowned champion of the electric category. Jake Dennis (154 points), Nick Cassidy (153 points), Pascal Wehrlein (138 points) and Mitch Evans (122 points) are the favorites for the world title this season. Protagonists throughout the 12 E-Prix already contested, the four men – from four different teams – will have their card to play in Italy (July 15-16), then in Great Britain (July 29-30). But among this leading quartet, who will be the « favorite of favorites »?

Experience: Evans Advantage

To begin our comparison between the four contenders for the crown in Formula E, let’s base ourselves on one of the essential factors in a final sprint: experience. In this game, it is Mitch Evans who has the strongest background. The New Zealander, present in Formula E since 2017 and still with Jaguar, has 91 E-Prix to his credit. Above all, Mitch Evans is a regular in title races. Fourth in 2021 and vice-world champion in 2022, the Kiwi has already played twice for the world title, without achieving his goals.

Behind Evans’ fine CV, the other three drivers are also beginning to have some Formula E experience. Pascal Wehrlein has 60 E-Prix to his name, while Nick Cassidy and Jake Dennis have taken part in 43 E- Price each. The Briton was also involved in a title race: it was in 2021, with BMW. The Nuneaton native ultimately finished third in the championship that season.

Evans: 91 E-Prix
Wehrlein: 60 E-Prix
Dennis: 43 E-Prix
Cassidy: 43 E-Prix

The car: equality

Since the introduction of the Gen3, two engine manufacturers have come out on top: Porsche and Jaguar. From an accounting point of view, it’s almost perfect equality between the two manufacturers: 409 points and 5 victories won in total for Jaguar and Envision, 408 points and 5 victories gleaned by Porsche and Andretti.

If Jaguar had a difficult start during the inaugural E-Prix, in Mexico City, the English engine manufacturer recovered tremendously well thereafter. After starting at top speed, the single-seaters powered by a Porsche power unit experienced a low mid-season, but are still in the game against Jaguar. Porsche – Jaguar, Jaguar – Porsche: the hierarchy changes with each E-Prix. Difficult to give a favorite team for the last E-Prix of the season.

Wehrlein / Porsche: 231 points, 4 wins
Cassidy / Envision (Jaguar): 225 points, 3 wins
Evans / Jaguar: 184 points, 2 wins
Dennis / Andretti (Porsche): 177 points, 1 victory

Jaguar engine: 409 points, 5 wins
Porsche engine: 408 points, 5 wins

The dynamic: advantage Dennis and Cassidy

Since it is almost impossible to decide between the four drivers by the level of their single-seaters, let’s analyze their dynamics over the last four meetings (Monaco, Jakarta x2 and Portland). This time, the best momentum is to be attributed to Jake Dennis, who is on a fine series of five podiums in the last five E-Prix. Winner of the first race of the season, in Mexico, the Briton has since signed seven podiums (including five 2nd places) without managing to win again. A nice comeback after the big slump between Hyderabad and the first race in Berlin (0 points in four E-Prix).

If Jake Dennis is the most consistent, with 18.5 points scored on average over the last 4 E-Prix, Nick Cassidy is also in good form with two victories in Monaco and Portland. The Envision driver even has three successes in the last five E-Prix if we add his victory in Berlin.

Dennis: 74 points (i.e. 18.5 points on average over the last 4 E-Prix)
Cassidy: 57 points and 2 wins (i.e. 14.25 points on average)
Evans: 46 points (11.5 points on average)
Wehrlein: 38 points and 1 win (9.5 points on average)

Circuits: Evans and Dennis advantage

The last four races of the ninth season of Formula E will be contested on two circuits, with two double header in Rome and then in London. Two events well established in the Formula E calendar: the Italian capital has hosted the FE since 2018, while the British megalopolis has been present in the electric championship for three seasons. Enough to compare the results between our four drivers in contention for the title.

Looking at the results over the last seasons in Rome and London, two drivers stand out: Mitch Evans and Jake Dennis. The first city has a good track record in Italy, with three victories in six participations. In London, on the other hand, the history is less glorious with only one podium in four E-Prix. The second, he is much more comfortable in the British capital, with two victories and a podium in four starts. But unlike Mitch Evans, Jake Dennis did not meet with great success in Italy…

Evans: 3 wins in Rome (2019, 2022 x2) and a 3rd place in London (2021)
Dennis: 2 wins in London (2021, 2022) and a 2nd place in London (2022)
Cassidy: a 3rd place in London (2022)
Wehrlein: a 3rd place in Rome (2021)

The verdict: advantage Dennis

In view of the four points mentioned above, two drivers have a slight advantage over the others for the final sprint: Jake Dennis, who is surfing on an excellent dynamic of five podiums in the last five E-Prix and who has shown to his advantage on the London track, and Mitch Evans, the most experienced of the four contenders and historically very strong in Rome.

But it is necessary to decide well to retain only one of them and, by pure pragmatism, it is Jake Dennis who has the favors of AUTOHebdo. The Briton, installed at the head of the championship, has 32 points ahead of his New Zealand rival. However, let’s remain cautious about the predictions put forward, this surprising Formula E season could well have a few more surprises in store for us…

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