Which 2022-23 NHL team has the most Stanley Cup ingredients?
Think you know the sport? PointsBet Canada is live in Ontario!
_____
Can a Stanley Cup winner be distilled into a reproducible recipe?
It’s a question I ask every year after the NHL’s trade deadline passes as we re-evaluate the league’s power structure based on players who have changed teams. Is there a list of ingredients a contending team can look for and sprinkle in a pot each season to ensure a long playoff run?
Over the past two weeks, I’ve identified a « Stanley Cup recipe » by looking for common traits among 10 former Stanley Cup winners. I narrowed down the ingredient list to seven features. It wasn’t as simple as being good at everything. For example, there was no strong correlation at all between having a good power play and winning the Cup.
Using these metrics, which NHL roster has the right mix of championship gear this season?
Today we come to the conclusion of this eight-part series. So far, I’ve outlined the seven regular season ingredients that I’ve identified as strongly correlated with recent championship success in the NHL:
1. Team weight – ranking among the 10 heaviest teams in the NHL
2. Top-10 Scorer(s) – Have at least one player who is in the top 10 in points or points per game
3. Top 10 Goalkeepers – Have a goalkeeper who plays at least half of their team’s games and ranks in the top 10 in save percentage
4. Sharing Shot Attempts – Corsi’s NHL Top 10 Ranking For Percentage
5. Shorthanded Effectiveness – Having a top 10 shorthandedness in the NHL
6. Stanley Cup Rings – Have at least one player who has already won a Stanley Cup
7. Trade Deadline Deals – Negotiate at least one listing upgrade between Jan 1st and Deadline
Now is the time to mix all the ingredients and see which 2022-23 teams tick the most boxes. Will the formula spit out a viable Cup contender?
Here’s a look at how the 32 teams ranked in the Stanley Cup Ingredients, with data based on matches played up to Monday 20 March:
Stanley Cup ingredients, 1-7
| Crew | Heavy | Best striker | Best goalkeeper | CF% king | strong pc | cup rings | trades) |
| Anaheim | Yes | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Arizona | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Boston | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Buffalo | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | No | Yes |
| Calgary | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| carolina | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Chicago | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Colorado | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| Columbus | No | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| dallas | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Detroit | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Edmonton | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | No | No | Yes |
| Florida | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No |
| Los Angeles | No | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| Minnesota | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Montreal | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Nashville | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| New Jersey | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| New York Islanders | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes |
| New York Rangers | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Ottawa | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| philadelphia cream | No | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Pittsburgh | No | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| San Jose | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Seattle | No | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| Saint Louis | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Tampa Bay | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Toronto | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Vancouver | No | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Vegas | Yes | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Washington | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Winnipeg | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes |
Now we consolidate the data to summarize the teams that performed best:
Most Stanley Cup ingredients, 2022-23 NHL teams
MICHELIN STAR
Boston Bruins, 6
Dallas Stars, 6
DELICIOUS
Colorado Avalanche, 5
Tampa Bay Lightning, 5
COULD USE A PINCH OF SALT
Calgary Flames, 4
Carolina Hurricanes, 4
Edmonton Oilers, 4
Nashville Predators, 4
New Jersey Devils, 4
New York Islanders, 4
Toronto Maple Leafs, 4
Vegas Golden Knights, 4
Washington Capitals, 4
Winnipeg Jets, 4
BLAND
Anaheim Ducks, 3
Bison Sabers, 3
Florida Panthers, 3
Los Angeles Kings, 3
New York Rangers, 3
Ottawa Senators, 3
Pittsburgh Penguins, 3
San Jose Sharks, 3
Seattle Kraken, 3
Vancouver Canucks, 3
RETURNS THE
Arizona coyotes, 2
Chicago Blackhawks, 2
Detroit Red Wings, 2
Minnesota Wild, 2
Montreal Canadiens, 2
St. Louis Blues, 2
CALL THE HEALTH INSPECTOR
Columbus Blue Jackets, 1
Philadelphia Flyers, 1
Some takeaways:
– The Stars almost got a perfect score. They only missed Shot Attempt Share, and they rank 12e in this statistic. They also have the pillars you want in a championship team: elite goalkeeper in Jake Oettinger, star scorer in Jason Roberson and benchmark defender in Miro Heiskanen. Look out, Western Conference. The Bruins have played in the same six categories and rank 15e in Sharing shot attempts.
– Have the Leafs maneuvered their way from contender to contender? They check four of the seven boxes, which is good, but they would have checked at least five boxes before the trade deadline. They were ninth in Shot Attempt Share at the time, but have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league since revamping their squad with six new roster regulars, and their penalty falls just outside the top 10.
– For the most part, the right teams rank in the right places, validating the formula, Of the 16 teams currently in playoff position, 15 placed (or tied) in the top 16 among the Ingredient Rankings. Only the Minnesota Wild sound the alarm, ticking only two boxes, but their rankings are misleading considering that Filip Gustavsson hasn’t played enough games in goal to qualify for the « Top 10 of the goalkeepers”.
– Meanwhile, Tank Nation was done justice, with the Flyers, Blue Jackets, Blackhawks and Coyotes ranking among the lowest-rated teams.
Conclusion
Look at these top four teams: Boston, Dallas, plus the last three Stanley Cup winners in Tampa Bay and Colorado. It seems that the recipe is always seasoned correctly. You could do a lot worse than predict Boston or Tampa will face Dallas or Colorado in the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Finals.
_____
