The Negotiator: John Klingberg – Daily Face-to-Face

This is part of a one-season series of « The Negotiator », where we’ll tap into Daily Faceoff’s front office experience. Steve Greeley, who most recently served as assistant general manager for the Buffalo Sabers.

Klingberg is currently in the final season of a seven-year contract worth a total of $ 29.75 million ($ 4.25 million AAV) he signed with the Dallas Stars ahead of the 2015 season- 16.

Klingberg has been a regular performer throughout his career with the Stars, but turns 30 next summer.

The question: How much will Klingberg’s next contract be worth?

John klingberg

Team: Dallas Stars
Position: DR
Age: 29
Career: 480 games – 65 goals + 262 assists = 327 points
Last season: 53 games – 7 goals + 29 assists = 36 points
Current season: 2 games – 0 goals + 0 assists = 0 points
Current contract: final year of a 7-year, $ 29.75 million contract
Current AAV: $ 4.25 million

Analysis: When an impending UFA wants to stay with their current squad, it is urgent for both the team and the player to strike a deal ahead of the season. However, agreeing to the terms is often easier said than done.

In recent years we’ve seen the top UFAs reconcile just days before the start of the season, like Aleksander Barkov and Florida, and we’ve seen situations where it drags on until the last seconds of June, as it did. with Steven Stamkos and Tampa Bay. . Klingberg’s side have yet to end contract negotiations, making it clear that this player would be happy to reconcile with Dallas for a long extension. But when the Stars and Klingberg can agree on an extension remains to be seen.

Klingberg’s 2020-21 season, statistically speaking, has been a slight rebound from the 2019-20 season and tied with his excellent 2018-19 season. You would think Klingberg is confident he will maintain his offensive production in 2021-2022.

Unfortunately for Klingberg, the Stars’ opener of the season didn’t go as planned, when he was injured in a very awkward fall and crash behind the Dallas net. The good news for Dallas and Klingberg is that he’s now back in the lineup and has only missed four games. The injury on opening night was a chilling reminder that for any UFA an injury can be imminent and having an extension in hand can be very heartwarming.

In the past three seasons, Klingberg is tied for 16^e in points per game among defenders and 28^e overall time on the ice for defensemen, while earning $ 4.25 million per season very supportive of the team. It goes without saying that at 29, Klingberg will want to make his final contract a very friendly deal with the PLAYERS.

Klingberg 2020-2021:

• .68 points per game (13^e in the NHL for defensemen)
• 22:42 YOU (39^e in the NHL for defensemen)
• 17^e for defenders in PP ice time averaging 3:01 per game

  Klingberg 2019-2020:

• 0.55 points per game (27^e in the NHL for defensemen)
• 22:10 YOU (48^e in the NHL for defensemen)
• 35^e for defenders on average PP TOI @ 2:33

Klingberg 2018-2019:

• .70 points per game (14^e in the NHL for defensemen)
• 11^e in the NHL for defenseman PP points
• 24:32 YOU (11^e for defenders)
• 18^e for PP defenders on ice, averaging 2:59 per game on the power play

Comparable agents:

The three agreements are post-pandemic:

Seth Jones, LD, Chicago: 27 years, 0.49 PPG (career) – 8 years x $ 9.5 million AAV = $ 76 million

Dougie Hamilton, RD, New Jersey: 28 years, 0.56 PPG (career) – 7 years x $ 9 million AAV = $ 63 million

Darnell Nurse, LD, Edmonton: 26 years, 0.39 PPG (career) – 8 years x $ 9.25 million AAV = $ 74 million

Comparable agents:

The agent is likely using Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse and Dougie Hamilton as comparables for all of the overtime talks. The nurse was working on her extension when she was 25, not 29, and I see that probably as a point that Dallas will push back on. From an age and production standpoint, Seth Jones is where I think the agent is really trying to get his point across.

Seth Jones (8 years x $ 9.25 million per year)

• 28 years old at the time of the extension
• .50 points per game (36^e in the NHL) vs. .68 Klingberg (13^e) during the 2020-21 season
• 25:14 ice time (5^e in the NHL for defensemen) c. 22:42 Klingberg (39^e) during season 20-21
• 48^e in total for PP defenders ice time, on average 2:00 per game against Klingberg 16^e with 3:01 per match during the 2020-21 season

Darnell Nurse (8 years x $ 9.5 million per year)

• 27 years old at the time of the extension
• .64 points per game against .68 for Klingberg (13^e in the NHL) during the 2020-21 season
• 25:38 ice time per game during the 2020-21 season
• 65^e for defenders on the power play at 1:23 per game against 16-year-old Klingberg^e at 3:01 per match during the 2020-21 season

Dougie Hamilton (7 x 9.0)

• 28 years old at the time of the extension
• 0.76 points per game against 0.68 for Klingberg (13^e in the NHL) during the 2020-21 season
• 22:43 time on the ice vs 22:42 for Klingberg (39^e in the NHL) during the 2020-21 season
• 15^e for defenders on the power play on the ice at 3:03 per game against 16-year-old Klingberg^e with 3:01 per match during the 2020-21 season

Team Comparables:

Morgan rielly: (8 years x 7.5 million per year)

John carlson: (8 years x $ 8 million per year)

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8 years x $ 8.25 million per year)

The Morgan Rielly case came at the right time for the Dallas Stars. It is rare that the team with the rights of a player has to pay more than the market on an AAV for a player. If Rielly had hit the market I think he would have received a higher AAV, but Rielly is comfortable in Toronto and the 8^e year, paired with the NMC, was likely to convince him that he did not need to attempt the waters of free agency.

Potential Dallas Stars Offer: 7 years x $ 7.75 million per year

Potential Klingberg Camp Ask: 8 years x $ 9 million per year

The negotiator’s projection: 7 years at $ 8.25 million per year

Miro Heiskanen is stuck with an AAV of $ 8.45 million and I think Klingberg will come below that number. How does Dallas keep Klingberg below $ 8.45 million? Well, they lure him in with a longer NMC and they can offer a higher signing bonus than Heiskanen received which was only $ 3 million. Unless Klingberg gets traded, Dallas are the only team in the league that can bid eight years, so the seven-year offer isn’t an insult – it’s just Dallas looking at fathers time and saying that we think seven years is fair.

At the end of the day, I think Klingberg is much closer to the John Carlson accord than the Seth Jones accord. Texas ‘fine tax laws could be in the Stars’ favor, as all parties will try to figure out what the takeaway is for John Klingberg. The factors that I think will keep the AAV closer to $ 8.25 are the fact that Dallas also locked up Heiskanen and Lindell. Lindell actually averaged more ice time per game for Dallas than Klingberg.