After a month of games in the NFL, surprises are waiting for you. The Cards remain the only team with an immaculate record, Sam Darnold is the leader in touchdowns, the Steelers are going nowhere and the Chargers have found the secret sauce.
It’s exciting on the pitch and also for sports betting since so far, if you’ve followed my recommendations, everything is fine.
Second week in a row with four good predictions. Small feedback on the action of week 4.
The winning bets: Browns -2.0 / Chargers -3.0 / Ravens -1.0 / Seahawks +3.0
My four winning selections have affected teams that have won their matches. I favored small point differences while I still saw too generous lines.
The Browns held back the Vikings’ attack, as did the Ravens who were never threatened by the Broncos. The spectacular side of the Chargers got the better of the Raiders and confirmed my doubts about the gang to Derek Carr. For the Seahawks, it was a little more emotional decision due to the divisional game. I saw a close duel against the Niners, eventually Seattle won outright before collapsing against the Rams on Thursday.
Losing bets: Rams -4.0
The only thing I didn’t see last week was the loss of the Rams. The Cards are really to be taken seriously when Kyler Murray is healthy. He can, on his own, change the pace of a game with his legs and instincts on the pitch. Everything is going well for the Rams, but things are going even better in the Arizona desert.
With all of that in mind, here are my picks for Week 5 of the NFL calendar.
As usual, I use the odds available on Mise-O-Jeu +
Packers @ Bengals
We respect more and more the attack of the Bengals and the comeback of Joe Burrow, except that last week it was against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
If it’s that hard against the worst team in the NFL, imagine against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
With a possible injury to Joe Mixon, we have to jump on this line by just three points before it goes up.
The bet: Packers -3.0 on the road
Eagles @ Panthers
Sam Darnold has returned to life with the Panthers and it’s a nice surprise so far in Carolina.
The game against the Eagles will be close and we see a good door to bounce back here at the Panthers.
On the other hand, 3 points is a bit too much. Mathematically, you have to line up behind the Eagles even if you don’t really want to bet on the team.
The heart says Caroline, but the head, and the budget, leans towards the birds.
The bet: Eagles +3.0 on the road
Browns @ Chargers
Baker Mayfield, since the start of the campaign, has fallen short of expectations and is held back by a shoulder injury. It was blatant against the Vikings last week as the Cleveland attack stalled. Excluding the two-headed monster that is Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, it’s not rosy for Cleveland.
However, on paper, they are still a good team and the defense holds everything in place.
Except the Chargers are on fire and Justin Herbert doesn’t miss out. The run defense will be tested, but the Chargers have beaten better attacks than the Browns and we could see a bit of the same again this week.
At less than three points, we fall behind who will win the game according to our predictions.
The bet: Chargers -2.5 at home
Titans @ Jaguars
The Titans lost to the Jets in overtime last week. If that’s not a slap in the face enough to bounce back against poor Jaguars, it could be said that the season is dead in Tennessee.
In Jacksonville, it’s a wildfire with a coach more or less interested in the fate of his team, misguided young players and a group of owners faltering about the future.
Honestly, 4.5 points is just too little against the Jaguars, even at home. If you think the Titans still have a chance to have a winning season, they’re going to come and make some noise with the Jaguars.
The bet: Titans -4.5 on the road
Bills @ Chiefs
Game of the week in the NFL and it has to be said: the Chiefs are more vulnerable than you think.
The test will be real with the Bills attack and, in a few weeks, we will perhaps come back to this line and wonder why the Bills were not favored.
Yes, the Chiefs are still very dangerous, but the defense is worrying. If any team can take advantage of it, it’s the Bills. After the first week’s misstep, things are rolling in Buffalo.
It is not yet known if the Bills will win, but the odds are good. With 3 points of difference, cover your angles by betting on the neglected team.
The bet: Bills +3.0 on the road
The lines are very tight this week. The Cards, for example, saw the line climb to 9 points from around 4-5 points at the start of the week.
My suggestion, in these cases, is the use of « Teasers ». That is, you combine two bets together and you improve your line by 6 or 7 points. For example this week, the Cards will win against San Francisco (in theory) and the Cowboys also against the Giants. The two formations are favored by 9.5 and 7 points respectively. If we “Tease” both, we end up with lines of -3.5 and -1.0 and that’s very interesting.
You win less money, but it is better to have several small wins than losing bets.
With that, good football, everyone.