We already knew that the Canadian would have the best chance of winning the lottery for the NHL draft. We now know what the odds are.
The Canadian, by virtue of his very last rank in the general classification in 2021-2022, has an 18.5% chance of drawing the first choice in the draft. Except that in fact, the percentage chance of getting the first choice climbs to 25.5%. Under a new rule, no team can climb more than 10 points in the draft thanks to the lottery. We must therefore add to the percentage of the Canadian the combined percentages of all the teams that cannot reach the first place in the draft.
Whatever happens, Montreal is guaranteed to pick one of the top three picks.
The lottery will take place on May 10, from 6:30 p.m.
The Coyotes, who finished the season at 31e rank, will have a 13.5% chance of winning, 5% less than the Habs.
Seattle Kraken rounds out mediocrity podium at 30e rank, and will have an 11.5% chance of picking the very first rank.
They are followed by the Philadelphia Flyers (9.5%), New Jersey Devils (8.5%), Chicago Blackhawks (7.5%), Ottawa Senators (6.5%), Red Wings Detroit (6%), Buffalo Sabers (5%), Anaheim Ducks (3.5%), San Jose Sharks (3%), Columbus Blue Jackets (2.5%), New York Islanders (2%), Winnipeg Jets (1.5%), Vancouver Canucks (0.5%) and Vegas Golden Knights (0.5%).
Note that if the Blackhawks do not obtain one of the first two choices, their selection will pass to the hands of the Blue Jackets. The Golden Knights will trade their first-round pick to the Sabers if he’s not in the top 10.