NHL Daily Betting Guide: December 2
Getting a little skin in the game can make NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor with this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the sports betting odds (via PointsBet) and the odds of winning of each team based on the model created by Philippe Bulsink. Based on these two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to watch throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All « recommended bets » are bets of 1 unit.
I will also provide analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to report big news on injuries, roster changes and the departure of substitute goalkeepers.
The number to watch is the « Diff ». which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our odds calculator.
Brock Seguin’s choice
Recommended bets
Florida Panthers (vs. BUF)
This is a huge shift, Florida is fourth in xGF% (55.0%) and Buffalo is 28th (45.6%). Even as a big favorite (-275), the model still sees value on the Panthers.
Florida continue to be dominant at home, scoring 12 of 13 wins averaging 4.31 goals for and 2.38 goals against per game. Meanwhile, the Sabers are 2-5-2 on the road while being outscored 32-23.
1 unit bet: FLA -275
Tampa Bay Lightning (vs. STL)
The Lightning almost beat these Blues on the road Tuesday and did so without Steven Stamkos or Andrei Vasilevskiy. Both should be back tonight, and the model recognizes them as -142. The Lightning have won five of their last six home games averaging 3.67 goals-for-2.00 goals against per game.
1 unit bet: TBL -142
Minnesota Wild (vs. NJD)
The Devils had a spark with the return of Jack Hughes to the roster on Tuesday, but were knocked down by the Sharks. Now they have a tough game in Minnesota. The Wild are among the top 5v5 teams in the NHL, ranking 10th in xGF / 60 (2.43) and fifth in xGA (2.04). The Wild are 8-2-0 with an average of 4.60 goals per game at home this season.
1 unit bet: MIN -174
Washington Capitals (vs. CHI)
The model is in love with the favorites tonight, identifying the Capitals as the fourth bet of the night. The Blackhawks have been better defensively since the change of coach, but their offense is among the worst in the league. Since hiring Derek King, the only two teams have a higher xGF / 60 than Ottawa and Arizona. Not great. The Capitals have played excellent hockey, winning nine of their last 12 games (9-2-1) while allowing just 2.33 points per game. It’s hard to imagine the Blackhawks generating enough attacks to win this one.
1 unit bet: WSH -197
Proceed with caution ⚠️
New York Islanders (vs. SJS)
Even though the model recommends a bet on the Islanders (-127), they are coming out of a COVID postponement and it’s unclear who will be in the lineup tonight. Even if they get everyone back, it’s a pretty tough place to stay away from tonight.
Game choice
Yaremchuk’s choice – Caroline -1.5 (-136) against OTT
I’m really not trying to overthink this one. Yes, the Canes are going through a rough patch right now, but they are clearly the best team in this game by a wide margin. The fact that this game is in Carolina also helps because the Senators have won only one road victory in nine games this season. The goalkeepers’ game is Anton Forsberg against Antti Raanta, which also clearly favors the Canes. I pick them to bounce back and cover the puck line tonight against Ottawa.
Yaremchuk’s prop – Aaron Ekblad more than 0.5 assists (-115) against BUF
Another victory last night in the accessories department thanks to Dylan Larkin!
Tonight, I’m going to bet Aaron Ekblad will collect at least one assist in the Panthers game against the Sabers. He’s got apples in six of his last eight games and he’s consistently registering hefty minutes in both 5v5 and power play. The Panthers have a planned total of four team goals and I like Ekblad’s chances of being involved in the offense tonight.
