NHL Daily Betting Guide: December 16
Getting a little skin in the game can make NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor with this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the sports betting odds (via PointsBet) and the odds of winning of each team based on the model created by Philippe Bulsink. Based on these two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to watch throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All « recommended bets » are bets of 1 unit.
I will also provide analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to report big news on injuries, roster changes and the departure of substitute goalies.
The number to watch is the « Diff ». which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our odds calculator.
Choice of model
Proceed with caution ️
Carolina Hurricanes (vs DET)
It’s no surprise that the model strongly urges you to bet the Hurricanes at -164 against the Red Wings. Because on a normal day they would be much heavier favorites. However, the NHL is not normal right now. COVID-19 is going through the locker room tonight and frankly it’s surprising the Hurricanes are even playing tonight.
Carolina placed Jordan Staal, Andrei Svechnikov, Ian Cole and Steven Lorentz on COVID protocol yesterday, joining Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, who tested positive in Vancouver. As a result of all of these positives, the Hurricanes will be forced to play a few short players without 44.4% of their top-9.
Montreal Canadiens (vs PHI)
The model likes the Canadiens tonight as a +120 underdog at home, however, he hasn’t had time to adjust to the Flyers’ change of coach.
Since switching from Alain Vigneault to Mike Yeo, the Flyers have been much better, especially defensively. The sample size is not huge (five sets) but they went from 2.83 xGA / 60 under Vigneault to 2.40 xGA / 60 with Yeo behind the bench.
Meanwhile, the Canadians are still among the worst 5v5 teams in the NHL, placing 30th with a 45.67 xGF%. Even as an underdog, it’s hard to agree with the model still absorbing information about the new Philadelphia Flyers.
Game choice
COL beats NSH in regulation (-110)
Both of those teams come into this game with five-game winning streaks, but I still love the Avalanche here.
The Predators have had some big trouble with COVID and will be playing this game with fewer than the usual 18 skaters.
The Avs aren’t exactly healthy either, but they’ll have a full lineup. I’m taking Colorado not just to win, but to win in regulation, which they’ve done every time in their five-game heaters.
Stamkos More than 0.5 assists against OTT (-130)
I stick with assistive accessories that seem to work well for me.
Stamkos has collected an assist in four of his last five games and in seven of his last ten.
Yes, the Senators ruled out the Lightning over the weekend, but I don’t think it’ll happen again. The Lightning should produce an offense tonight and I like the chances that Stamkos is involved.
