Guide to Daily NHL Betting: December 9
Getting a little skin in the game can make NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor with this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the sports betting odds (via PointsBet) and the odds of winning of each team based on the model created by Philippe Bulsink. Based on these two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to watch throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All « recommended bets » are bets of 1 unit.
I will also provide analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to report big news on injuries, roster changes and the departure of substitute goalkeepers.
The number to watch is the « Diff ». which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our odds calculator.
Choice of model
Recommended bet
St. Louis Blues (v. DET)
It’s a bit of a tough place for the Blues, missing their two best goalies, Robert Thomas, David Perron, Justin Faulk and Tyler Bozak. Charlie Lindgren is set to make his Blues debut and faces a struggling Red Wings offense.
Over the past month, Detroit finished 26th in the NHL in xGF / 60, and the top line hasn’t been so dominant without Tyler Bertuzzi. Lindgren has been excellent at the AHL level this season, going 8-1-1 with a 2.16 GAA and .925% SV. He’s been solid in 25 career NHL games, so he might not be a substantial downgrade between the posts.
Injuries are built into the line (-165), and the model considers them to be slate’s biggest favorites (-201). Even with some key players missing, the model sees enough value on the Blues.
Bet 1 unit: STL -165
Proceed with caution
Montreal Canadiens (v. CHI)
Unlike the Blues, it’s hard to have so much confidence in the Canadiens’ failed lineup. Over the past month, they averaged the highest xGA / 60 (2.99) and third minus xGF / 60 (1.85) – their 39.95 xGF% is the league’s worst rate on this period.
From now on, Montreal will be without Christian Dvorak, Tyler Toffoli, Josh Anderson and Jeff Petry, among others. The Blackhawks have been much better under the guidance of interim head coach Derek King, so it’s hard to adhere to the role model’s love for a Montreal team riddled with injury at +119.
Recommended bet
Minnesota Wild: Money Line vs. San Jose (-145)
The Wild are leading a seven-game winning streak in this game and I think they will make eight. They are 8-4-1 on the road so far this season and tonight they will face Aaron Dell, who has allowed eight goals in his last two starts.
Cam Talbot (unconfirmed) could aim for the Wild and he stopped 38 of 39 shots in the team’s victory over Edmonton on Tuesday. The Wilds are in the top ten in 5v5 GF% and SF% while the Sharks are in the bottom third of the league in these two categories. Lots of reasons to love the Wild tonight.
Trevor Zegras more than 0.5 assists in CBJ (+140)
Now some people might laugh at it and think I’m just making one choice because Zegras played the highlights this week, but after looking at the numbers it’s clear that there is some value here. .
Zegras has collected eight assists in his last four games and collected at least one apple in seven of his last 10 games. Tonight he will face a Blue Jackets team who have allowed 12 goals in their last three games. The Ducks should have plenty of scoring chances tonight and I like the chances Zegras gets involved with an apple.
RECORD: 55-33-3 +17 credits
