Guide to Daily NHL Betting: December 11
Getting a little skin in the game can make NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor with this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the sports betting odds (via PointsBet) and the odds of winning of each team based on the model created by Philippe Bulsink. Based on these two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to watch throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All « recommended bets » are bets of 1 unit.
I will also provide analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to report big news on injuries, roster changes and the departure of substitute goalies.
The number to watch is the « Diff ». which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our odds calculator.
Choice of model
Carolina Hurricanes (at EDM)
After a three-game losing streak until the end of November, the Hurricanes start Saturday with a three-game winning streak. They beat the Jets and Flames to start their journey and will try to stay warm against the Oilers.
Edmonton are on a four-game losing streak and their offense has turned cold, scoring just 1.75 goals per game during that span.
Their historically good power play to start the season has seen a dry spell, converting just three of their last 21 chances (14.3%). It might have a hard time starting tonight against a Hurricanes team that has the PK ranked # 1 according to my PK SCORE. Take into account that Carolina is also the best team at 5v5 and the Hurricanes are a good plus-money bet tonight.
1 Unity Bet: CAR +106
Columbus Blue Jackets (at SEA)
Over the past few weeks, the Blue Jackets and the Kraken have been two of the worst offensive teams in the NHL. In their last 10 games, Seattle is last in xGF / 60 (1.82) and Columbus has the fourth lowest (1.91).
With two inane offenses clashing, it’s easy to lean towards the team with the better goalie. Elvis Merzlikins has been among the best in the league, while Philipp Grubauer is dead last for goals recorded above expectations (-17.3).
The model agrees, seeing the Blue Jackets as -104 favorites despite being +144 in sports betting.
1 unit bet: CBJ +144
Toronto / Chicago over 6.0 goals in total (-125)
I was really torn here. There was a part of me that wanted to go with the Leafs on the puck line, but I’m not sure I trust Petr Mrazek so I’m going with the top. Mrazek hasn’t played since October 30 and in two starts this year he has allowed seven goals.
The Blackhawks haven’t been a great team lately, but they start Kevin Lankinen tonight and his GPA is just north of three. The Leafs have also been a very strong overbet recently with the number hitting or pushing six in a row.
Sonny Milano more than 0.5 points at the PIT (+110)
Milano ended a four-game streak with at least one point in the Ducks’ last game against Columbus and I love that he bounces back tonight. He also has 20 points in 23 games this season.
The Penguins are also playing for the second game in a row, so I think the Ducks should be able to produce some offense. Getting a top player who also plays on the power play for more money like this is a good place.