[Fiches Draft] Trey Lance (QB), arms and legs
Trey Lance – Quarterback – North Dakota State
Cut : 1m93
Weight: 102 kilos
Estimated position in the draft: top 10
2019 stats: 2786 yards, 28 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. 1110 yards and 14 TDs on the ground
NFL Comparison: younger brother between the youngest Kyler Murray and the elder Cam Newton
Strong points
– athlete
– Race
– Powerful arm
He could only play one match in 2020 due to the pandemic but in 2019, he had panicked the counters by throwing 28 touchdowns without any interception! In addition, Trey Lance added over 1,000 yards rushing and 14 TDs. A lethal double threat to the opposing defenses. An athletic player, he knows how to take the breach like a runner and also lower his shoulder during contact. Going into contact does not scare him, Trey Lance also played safety in high school, while his father Carlton was a cornerback in university and then in Europe to the London Monarchs in the late NFL Europe. Mobile and athletic, Trey Lance seems to correspond to what is now understood by « modern quarterback ».
He has this famous « big arm » to attack the depth: a third of his yards launched in 2019 were on passes of more than 20 yards. But if it is precise on the short and intermediate zones, it is much less the case during the deep balls. However, the power of his arm excites the scouts as the times below 4.40 seconds on the 40 yards, makes them crazy among the cornerbacks and receivers.
Weak points
– More runner than passer
– precision
– Competition level
28 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. At any level, this performance remains remarkable. However, it can be put into perspective on two levels: he attempted 287 passes in 2019 where Trevor Lawrence attempted 407 and Justin Fields 354. Fewer attempts and faced with lower level opposition (FCS, 2nd university level). Carson Wentz has certainly proven that you can be trained in North Dakota State and have a successful NFL debut, but the two players are totally different.
Trey Lance has a lot to learn to become a good passer from the pocket. In particular on the regularity because if he has a powerful arm, his deep passes were still too often imprecise in the 2nd university division, as in the two examples below, during the only match played in 2020.
According to ProFootballFocus, only 44% of the passes thrown by Trey Lance were considered accurate. A percentage far, far from all the quarterbacks selected in the 1st round for years, including Lamar Jackson who was not the most famous passer.
On its highlights, Trey Lance is impressive: strong, powerful on the ground, bombs by the dozen. By definition, highlights only show the good times. And then North Dakota State University was crushing everything in its path, even more so than Alabama at the top level. Best offensive line, best receivers, best defense (Jabril Cox is coming), Trey Lance was in a padded, heated and massaged chair. It is very likely that he will not be able to play in his rookie season, the talent is undeniable but he must be refined, modeled and developed.
Possible destinations
49ers, Broncos, Patriots, Washington
In a system that values ground play, the 49ers could prepare for the future by putting Trey Lance in an incubator behind Jimmy Garoppolo while the Broncos could give Drew Lock one last chance, or not. Trey Lance does not look at all like the type of quarterback that Tom Brady was, but the characteristic of a great coach is to know how to evolve and reinvent himself, Trey Lance could please Bill Belichik, to succeed Cam Newton. With the pick 19, the Football Team seems too far away to get this quarterback of the future to hatch behind Ryan Fitzpatrick but a trade is still possible.
